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General Columbia River Smelt
Forecast for 2004
See also: Columbia/Cowlitz Smelt Fishing
Reports
2004 General Abundance Outlook
Based on the poor parental returns observed in 1999-2000, the outlook for the 2004 smelt run of age 4 and 5 fish would be below average; however, good parent returns observed in 2001 would suggest a strong return of age 3 fish in 2004. These direct relationships between parent and progeny are confounded by the fact that smelt have very high fecundity rates and ocean rearing conditions are likely the overriding factor in determining stock abundance for the upcoming year, as was the case in 2001-2003. It is important to note that since 1999 ocean conditions off the Oregon and Washington coasts have been favorable for early ocean survival of juvenile smelt.
Ocean Abundance
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index based on North Pacific sea-surface temperature and pressure correlates with changes in northeast Pacific marine ecosystem productivity. Warm PDO eras have coincided with enhanced coastal ocean biological productivity in Alaska and inhibited productivity off the west coast of the contiguous United States, while cold PDO eras have coincided with the opposite north-south pattern of marine productivity. Pacific climate changes observed from late 1998 through 2001 indicate favorable productivity in the coastal waters where eulachon migrate. These conditions, especially during the first year of ocean residency, would improve larvae-spawner survival rates and the increased eulachon returns to the Columbia River during 2001-2003 support this hypothesis. If this relationship holds, returns during 2004 should also be strong. Warmer ocean conditions in 2002 and 2003 have probably had only modest impacts on survival of the 1999-2001 broods that comprise the 2004 run.Recent trends in eulachon abundance also follow another measure of ocean climate, the tropical Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), denoted by El Nino and La Nina events. In 1977, the index changed from a regular oscillation of El Nino and La Nina anomalies to fairly persistent El Nino conditions continuing up through 1988. Eulachon returns were variable during this time. The period of 1990-1998 was dominated by extreme and persistent El Nino conditions and during this time eulachon returns saw a precipitous decline. Eulachon returns to the Columbia River remained at record low levels during 1993-2000. Beginning in 1998, La Nina conditions developed and eulachon returns began increasing in 2001 in response to improved ocean rearing conditions. The sharp decline (1993-2000) and subsequent increase (2001-2003) in spawner abundance, lag the onset of persistent El Nino and La Nina conditions by about three to four years which is the dominant life cycle of eulachon.
Columbia River smelt are caught in the spring shrimp fisheries off the West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI); therefore, bycatch and test fishery information gathered by the Canadian Department of Fish and Oceans (CDFO) during their annual spring shrimp surveys can be used as a predictor for Columbia River returns. In comparison to 1999 the eulachon biomass indices off the WCVI increased significantly during 2000-2003. The biomass level in 2003 was the third largest since the mid 1970s which indicates that a significant number of smelt are in the ocean at this time. The estimate for Age 2+ smelt is higher than any other year except 2002, which would predict a large return of Age 3 fish in the winter of 2004.
Other pelagic fish such as anchovy, sardine, and herring all exhibited significant abundance increases during the past few years. Additionally, salmonid returns to the Columbia River have generally been at near record high levels during 2001-2003, which also suggests an improvement in ocean rearing conditions. The strong smelt returns to the Columbia River in 2001-2003, plus large abundances of other ocean rearing species during the same time period, suggest that smelt have recovered and a large return is likely in 2004.
Juvenile Production
Beginning in the early 1990's increased effort was expended to develop more direct measures of brood-year strength, rather than relying on landing of spawners in the commercial fishery. A smelt larval sampling program was initiated in 1994 for the Cowlitz River and was expanded to include the Kalama River in 1995, the mainstem Columbia River in 1997, and other Columbia River tributaries in 1998. Larval sampling was also conducted in the Cowlitz River in 1986. Larval sampling can help determine relative spawning success and when coupled with information on adult returns from sport and commercial fisheries helps provide some indication of the relative annual run strength. In past years the average larval densities at selected index sites have been used as a measure of relative brood strength. Years of high larval densities, such as 2000-2001, should correspond with good returns 3 to 4 years later; however, this is not always the case, especially in years when ocean rearing conditions change significantly. For example, the larval densities in 1999 were low relative to other years, yet returns in 2002 and 2003 were large.
In past years larval sampling techniques did not include multiple passes which could result in the data collected not accurately reflecting the overall abundance or peak out-migration. Beginning in 2003, multiple passes over the out-migration season were conducted at the Price Island and Clifton Channel sites, which will provide the data necessary to identify the peak out-migration as well as the duration of the 2003 out-migration from the bulk of the production areas. This new approach will be repeated in the coming years, providing the data necessary to develop a more meaningful method of comparing annual brood-year run strengths and possibly impacting comparison with past years data. Larval sampling may continue in the tributaries, but only to verify production. Improved larval density data need to be analyzed in conjunction with ocean climate condition data to improve the accuracy of abundance forecasts for future years. Unfortunately, the larval sampling program was not initiated until the runs had declined and therefore it is difficult to correlate larval catch rates to relative run strength, as indexed by commercial landings and CPUE’s, at this time. With increased run sizes and fisheries occurring in recent years the additional years of data collected may help define this relationship.
Joint State Eulachon Management Plan
Beginning in 1999 the Washington and Oregon Departments of Fish and Wildlife began work on a Joint State Eulachon Management Plan to guide all aspects of smelt management for future years. During 1999, WDFW and ODFW developed an interim Eulachon Management Plan to guide fishery management decisions in the year 2000 because a draft plan had not been completed prior to adoption of sport and commercial fishing seasons for that year. The interim plan included recommended fishery restrictions for the year 2000 and was adopted by the Columbia River Compact at a hearing in mid-December. Fisheries adopted during 2000 were consistent with the interim Eulachon Management Plan.The WDFW, with input from ODFW, has completed a eulachon management plan which contains recommended policies concerning smelt fishery management. These policies are considered wise-use management precepts that are consistent with the need to maintain an ecosystem approach to resource decisions. The ecological importance of eulachon is underscored in much of the body of research in the Northeast Pacific ecosystem and should be the fundamental consideration when making fishery management decisions affecting the health of this resource.
Policy
Recommendations for Eulachon Conservation and Fishery Management
From the Joint State Eulachon Management Plan
The management plan includes recommendations concerning fisheries occurring in the mainstem Columbia River and its tributaries below Bonneville Dam. Fishery recommendations have been separated into three separate levels depending on expected run size with run size expectations being based on:
1) parental run strength as indexed by fishery landings,
2) juvenile production as indicated by larval sampling, and
3) estimates of ocean productivity. Columbia River smelt fishing seasons have been adopted in accordance with the Joint State Eulachon Management Plan since 2001.
Excerpts From the Joint State Eulachon Management Plan
Describing Fisheries Recommended at Varying Run Size Expectations.
Level One Fisheries
Level One fisheries are recommended when there is great uncertainty in run strength or indications for a poor return. Level One fisheries would be the most conservative , similar to those adopted in 1997-2000, and should be scheduled to effect a harvest rate of 10% or less. Data obtained from these fisheries should give us a better index of run strength and productivity. The purpose of Level One fisheries would be to gain some insight on spawning returns to the lower Columbia River and its tributaries. The intent would be to capture some of the variability of eulachon returns and further develop a fishery database while minimizing the risk of overexploiting the return. The Joint Staff recommends one 12 - 24 hour fishing period per week for the mainstem Columbia River commercial fishery. Sport and commercial dipnet fisheries consisting of one 12-24 hour fishing period per week would be used to monitor returns to the Cowlitz River. The daily bag limit for Washington tributaries should be 10 lbs per person at these low levels of abundance. The Joint Staff recommends these fisheries be adopted for the January through March time frame with fisheries closed during the remainder of the year, except December as described below, as per permanent rules. These fisheries would be used to gain some real time insight of run size strength. Days and hours to be fished should be developed with the respective participants. The commercial fishery can be shaped to maximize marketing opportunities and the sport fishery could, for instance, be conducted during a weekend day to maximize opportunity. Fishery monitoring data would be one factor used to make in-season decisions about increase of the fisheries to Level Two or Three. December opportunity should be allowed 24 hours a day and seven days per week in the mainstem Columbia commercial and sport fisheries, as previously noted.Level Two Fisheries
When fishery data indicates a promising abundance in the spawning return and productivity indices are favorable, yet it is still uncertain whether the run is moderate or strong, then fishing time would be increased to collect additional data concerning relative eulachon abundance. The trigger to extend the fishery from Level One to Two should be carefully deliberated. The Joint Staff does not currently have a specific recommendation for a Level Two trigger. We believe evidence of increased run strength beyond what was observed solely in Level One fisheries (e.g., the presence of significant concentrations of birds and marine mammals attending the run) should be considered as well when ramping up fisheries.The Joint Staff recommends a two or three day commercial fishery in the mainstem Columbia River. The sport and commercial dipnet fisheries in the Cowlitz River should be similarly increased to two or three days. Managers could also consider whether to expand sport and commercial fisheries to lower Columbia tributaries other than the Cowlitz River. The Joint Staff recommends these fisheries be adopted for the January through March time frame with fisheries closed during the remainder of the year, except December in the mainstem, as per permanent rules. Fishery monitoring data would be one factor used to decide if it would be appropriate to increase fisheries to Level Three or decrease fisheries to Level One.
Level Three Fisheries
Level Three fisheries are the most liberal that the Joint Staff would recommend. The decision to adopt Level Three fishing opportunity would be based on very positive indicators of strong abundance and productivity and therefore a very low risk of overexploitation. The Joint Staff recommends that Level Three fisheries be conducted up to four days per week in the Columbia River with additional commercial opportunity of up to four days per week in all lower Columbia River tributaries. Sport fishing would be open in all tributaries for four to seven days per week. The Joint Staff recommends these fisheries be adopted for the January through March time frame with fisheries closed during the remainder of the year, except for December in the mainstem when fisheries are open with no daily closures, as per permanent rules. Increasing the daily bag limit for Washington sport dippers from ten pounds per person per day is appropriate at this level of fishing. The increase could range from 15 to 25 pounds, the latter value would be consistent with Oregon regulations. Fishery monitoring data would be one factor used to decide if it would be appropriate to decrease fisheries to Level Two or One.
2003 Sport Fishery
Due to favorable ocean conditions and good smelt bycatch in the shrimp fisheries, the 2003 season started off at Level Three. All Washington tributaries were open from 6 AM to 10 PM, seven days a week, from January 1 through March 31, 2003. The mainstem Columbia River was open to Oregon and Washington fishers seven days per week on a 24-hour basis. Initially, Washington recreational eulachon fisheries were restricted to a 10-pound daily limit, however; on February 12, 2003, the daily bag limit was increased to 20 pounds per person. Most dipping occurred in the Lewis and Cowlitz rivers, with some reports of dipping occurring in the Grays River also. All Oregon tributaries were open to sport dipping seven days per week the entire year as per permanent regulations and as was the case in 2002 dipping occurred in the Sandy River.
2004 Sport Fishery
Seasons will be announced December 19, 2003
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