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Pre-Season Forecasts
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2009 Pre-Season
Salmon Forecast:
Chinook
|
2009 Puget Sound Summer/Fall Chinook Preseason Forecasts |
|
Region |
Watershed |
Footnotes |
Forecast
Type |
Hatchery |
Supplmt |
Wild |
Total |
Comp
Chinook Management Criteria
|
|
RER/8 |
Low
Abundance Thresholds/9 |
|
Strait |
Hoko |
1 |
Esc w/o fishing |
|
|
969 |
969 |
<10% So. U.S. |
500 spawners |
| Dungeness |
1 |
Terminal |
|
|
727 |
727 |
<10% So. U.S. |
500 spawners |
| Elwha |
2 |
Terminal |
|
|
1,708 |
1,708 |
<10% So. U.S. |
1,000 spawners |
| Region total |
|
|
0 |
|
3,404 |
3,404 |
|
|
|
|
|
North Sound |
Glenwood Springs |
|
4B |
149 |
|
|
149 |
|
|
| Nooksack/Samish |
3 |
4B |
23,014 |
|
|
23,014 |
|
|
| Skagit |
|
Terminal |
639 |
|
23,400 |
24,039 |
50% total |
4,800 spawners |
| Stillaguamish |
|
Esc w/o fishing |
|
598 |
1,086 |
1,684 |
25% total |
650 |
| Snohomish |
|
Esc w/o fishing |
4,857 |
|
8,410 |
13,268 |
21% total |
2,800 spawners |
| Tulalip |
|
Esc w/o fishing |
3,966 |
|
|
3,966 |
|
|
| Region total |
|
|
32,625 |
598 |
32,897 |
66,119 |
|
|
|
|
|
Upper South Sound |
Lake Washington |
| Issaquah |
5 |
4B |
13,096 |
|
|
13,096 |
|
|
| Univ. of Wa |
|
4B |
1,488 |
|
|
1,488 |
|
|
| Cedar |
|
4B |
|
|
1,549 |
1,549 |
15% preterm So. U.S., 1,200 esc goal |
200 spawners |
| North Tributaries |
|
4B |
|
|
312 |
312 |
|
500 spawners |
| Subregion total |
|
|
14,584 |
|
1,861 |
16,445 |
|
|
|
|
Green River |
| Soos Creek Hatchery |
|
4B |
11,965 |
|
|
11,965 |
|
|
| Icy Creek |
|
4B |
842 |
|
|
842 |
|
|
| Mainstem/Newaukum |
1 |
4B |
|
|
9,224 |
9,224 |
15% preterm So. U.S., 5,800 esc goal |
1,800 spawners |
| Subregion total |
|
|
12,807 |
|
9,224 |
22,031 |
|
|
|
| Grovers |
|
4B |
2,346 |
|
|
2,346 |
|
|
| East Kitsap (Gorst, Dogfish, Clear) |
4 |
4B |
5,907 |
|
|
5,907 |
|
|
| Subregion total |
|
|
8,253 |
|
|
8,253 |
|
|
|
| Puyallup River |
1 |
4B |
6,060 |
|
1,476 |
7,536 |
50% total |
500 spawners/12 |
|
| Upper South Sound total |
41,704 |
|
12,561 |
54,265 |
|
|
|
| Lower
South Sound |
Carr Inlet |
5 |
4B |
11,948 |
|
|
11,948 |
|
|
| Deschutes |
5 |
4B |
10,692 |
|
|
10,692 |
|
|
| Nisqually |
1 |
4B |
21,331 |
|
4,606 |
25,937 |
1,100 escapement goal |
|
| Chambers |
5 |
4B |
7,370 |
|
|
7,370 |
|
|
| McAllister |
6 |
4B |
|
|
|
0 |
Program is terminated |
|
| Coulter |
7 |
4B |
|
|
|
0 |
Program is terminated |
|
| Lower South Sound Total |
|
|
51,341 |
|
4,606 |
55,947 |
|
|
|
| South Sound total |
|
|
93,045 |
0 |
17,167 |
110,212 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Hood Canal
|
Skokomish w/George Adams |
10 |
Terminal |
26,696 |
|
2,118 |
28,814 |
15% preterm So. U.S. total 3,650 esc goal w/1,650 nat esc/13 |
1,300 spawners/13 |
| 12B naturals |
|
Terminal |
|
|
114 |
114 |
12% preterm So. U.S. 750 esc goal |
400 spawners |
| 12C/12D/12H |
|
Terminal |
13,446 |
|
271 |
13,717 |
|
|
| 12D |
|
Terminal |
|
|
See above |
0 |
|
|
| Hood Canal total |
|
|
40,142 |
0 |
2,503 |
42,645 |
|
|
| |
|
Grand total |
165,812 |
598 |
55,970 |
222,380 |
|
|
| |
Footnotes
- Wild forecast Includes hatchery origin and natural origin fish
- Combine hatchery and natural forecasts
- This includes returns to Samish, Whatcom, Nooksack and Lummi Bay and neighboring streams.
- Forecast resulting from rearing pond production spawning in river of origin or in neighboring streams
- Combined natural and hatchery spawner forecast (all fish of hatchery origin)
- Last releases from BY 2001, no fall chinook are expected.
- Hatchery chinook releases terminated with BY 2000. 2007 forecast is wild production of naturally spawning hatchery fish.
- RER= Recovery Exploitation Rate (interim management ceiling during recovery phase).
- Level of spawning abundance that triggers additional management action.
- The low abundance threshold includes 800 natural and/or 500 hatchery spawners
- Threshhold expressed as natural origin spawners
- Goal for South Prairie Cr Index
- Aggregate for combined hatchery and wild spawners
|
|
|
Puget Sound Spring Chinook 2009 Preseason Forecasts |
|
Region |
Notes |
Forecast
Type |
Hatchery |
Supplmt |
Wild |
Total |
RER |
Low
Abundance
Thresholds |
| Nooksack River |
| North Fork |
1 |
Terminal |
748 |
1,143 |
261 |
2,152 |
Under Development |
1000 spawners/11 |
| South Fork |
2 |
Terminal |
|
|
54 |
54 |
Under Development |
1000 spawners/11 |
|
| Skagit
River |
Terminal |
1,395 |
|
1,154 |
2,549 |
38% total |
576 spawners |
|
White River |
| Minter Creek |
6 |
Terminal |
678 |
|
|
678 |
|
|
| White River Hatchery |
3,4 |
Terminal |
1,113 |
|
|
1,113 |
|
|
| Buckley Trap |
5 |
Terminal |
|
791 |
|
791 |
20% total |
200 spawners |
|
Total White River Springs |
|
|
|
|
|
2,582 |
|
|
|
|
Total Puget Sound |
|
|
3,934 |
1,934 |
1,469 |
7,337 |
|
|
|
- Supplementation number is hatchery-origin acclimated fish expected to spawn in the wild.
- Forecast of SF Nooksack stock origin chinook. Forecast that includes non-native origin fish is 138.
- Forecast of tagged returns to the hatchery rack only.
- For FRAM modeling purposes, 710 are estimated to originate from fingerling production and 403 from yearling production
- Includes naturally produced spring and fall chinook returns and acclimation pond production
- White River Spring production from Minter Creek H is not modeled in FRAM.
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Washington Coast 2009 Chinook Preseason Forecasts |
| Region |
Hatchery |
Wild |
Totals |
Natural Escapement Goal |
| North Coast |
| Quillayute River |
| Spring |
2,000 |
|
2,000 |
200 |
| Summer |
|
1,183 |
1,183 |
1200 (WDFW goal ONLY) |
| Fall |
|
5,583 |
5,583 |
> of 3,000 or 60% of run |
|
| Hoh |
| Spring/Summer |
|
1,061 |
1,061 |
>of 900 or 69% of RS |
| Fall |
|
3,276 |
3,276 |
>of 1,200 or 60% of RS |
|
| Queets |
| Spring/Summer |
|
|
0 |
>of 700 or 70% of RS |
| Fall |
|
|
0 |
>of 2,500 or 60% of RS |
|
| Quinault |
| Fall |
|
|
0 |
|
|
North Coast Totals: |
Summer/Falls |
0 |
10,042 |
10,042 |
|
|
Spring/Summers |
2,000 |
1,061 |
3,062 |
|
|
| Grays Harbor |
| Chehalis Springs |
|
1,019 |
1,019 |
1,400 |
|
| Chehalis Falls |
364 |
13,451 |
13,815 |
12,364 |
| Humptulips Falls |
2,574 |
5,874 |
8,448 |
2,236 |
| Subregion Falls Total |
2,938 |
19,325 |
22,263 |
|
|
| Willapa Bay |
34,817 |
1,951 |
36,768 |
|
|
| Coast Total |
39,756 |
33,398 |
73,154 |
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