To figure this out, think of our Special Permit drawing like a drawing where you pull a ticket out of a barrel. Each Special Permit category is a separate random drawing. All applicants per category are issued tickets to place into the barrel based on the number of points they have in that category. We use multipliers for our drawings where Special Permit points are squared. That means a person with 2 points ends up with 4 tickets in the barrel (2x2), whereas the person with 10 points ends up with 100 tickets (10x10).
The computer randomly pulls out these tickets in order. The lowest number for each application is kept and used to determine the order of the drawing. The lowest number in this case is the best (first pick). The first application is awarded a permit for their first hunt choice since it ended up with the first pick. As the computer moves down the list of applications, hunt choices are checked to see if permits are available. That is why it is important to think about the order of your hunt choices because the computer will check your first choice and might not make it to the others. For instance, if an application’s first hunt choice is no longer available, the computer then checks the second choice. If the second is not available, then the third choice is checked. If all hunt choices are not available, then that application earns a point and the computer moves on to the next application.
If you only want to hunt one location, you might select only one hunt choice. In this case, the odds of being drawn are a little tougher because the computer only reviews your one choice. However, you don’t risk losing your points for a Special Permit you are not truly interested in drawing, but will instead earn a point to improve your odds for future drawings.
If instead you are open to drawing several different hunts, using the extra hunt choices increases your chance of getting drawn. However, your fourth choice might not be your ideal location, but since you listed it as a choice and your first three hunt choices were not available, you will be awarded that permit and your points in that category will drop to zero. These are some of the factors to consider when determining what order and how many hunt choices to list.
With regard to the odds of being drawn, the weighted points system improves an individual’s odds, but it is still based upon a random draw and there are many other factors that affect the odds of being drawn. Some of the most significant factors are the number of permits offered/awarded for a particular hunt (some hunts draw as few as 1 winner and others as many as 750), the number of individuals applying for a particular hunt, whether an application is submitted as an individual or as a group, the number of hunt choices the application submitted (from 1 to 4), and the priority order of those hunt choices.
4th of June, 2013